Machine Tools: 40% increase in 2010 or 10% in 2011

Recently, the China Industry News reporter interviewed Wu Bolin, executive vice president of the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association, on the operation of the machine tool industry in 2010 and the industry trends in 2011.

He said that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized changing the mode of development, accelerating structural adjustment, improving the quality and efficiency of investment, strictly controlling investment in overcapacity industries, and preventing new low-level redundant construction. This will enable various industries to pay more attention to the quality of investment instead of pursuing the scale of investment in fixed assets. The rapid growth of the machine tool industry in 2010 has increased its base number and will also affect the growth rate in 2011. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2011 should exceed 10%. In the past, in 2010, the industry’s total industrial output value reached 553.68 billion yuan, an increase of 40.6% year-on-year.

Prosperity in import growth is worrying. From the statistical data of the sub-sectors, the total industrial output value of the gold-cutting machine tool industry was RMB 130.60 billion, an increase of 34.3% year-on-year.

The output of gold-cutting machine tools was 755,779 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 223,897 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.1% and 66.7%, respectively.

The total industrial output value of the forming machine tool industry was 40.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.2%. The output of forming machine tools was 261,488 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 12,207 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 18.0% and 8.1% respectively.

In contrast, according to import data, cumulative imports of machine tool products hit a record high in 2010, reaching US$15.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%. Among them, metal processing machine tools imported 9.42 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 59.8% year-on-year; compared with the highest point in history in 2008, it also increased by 24.4%.

Exports of machine tool products reached US$7.03 billion, an increase of 48.4% year-on-year, of which exports of metal processing machines reached US$1.85 billion, an increase of 31.3% year-on-year. Both have not reached the best level of history in 2008. The import and export deficit of metal processing machines was US$7.57 billion, an increase of 68.6% year-on-year.

Analyzing the export data, you can see three characteristics.

First, the monthly export value of machine tools increased at a rapid rate compared with the same period last year, but the growth rate of metal processing machine tools was lower than that of machine tool products.

The second is that the structure of export products needs further optimization. Last year, the export volume of the small abrasives industry continued to grow at a rapid rate. The cumulative export volume reached US$1.53 billion, which represented a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. Cutting tools and tool industries have become the two largest export products in the machine tool industry, accounting for machine tools. 44.5% of total export value of tool products.

Among these two types of products, resource-intensive, high-energy-consuming products such as low-grade abrasive tools and knives account for a large proportion. The relatively higher value-added machine tool exports accounted for a smaller proportion, accounting for only 26.3%.

The irrational structure of China's industrial export products has not been effectively changed.

Third, the unit price of CNC metal processing machine exports continued to decline. Larger declines include horizontal machining centers, gantry machining centers, CNC grinding machines, and CNC punch presses. In addition to the appreciation of the renminbi, companies compete for prices in the fierce international competition is one of the factors.

In short, the main reason for the sharp rise in export value of machine tools is the signs of recovery in the international market, especially in the emerging markets and Asian markets. In addition, the low base last year is also one of the reasons for the rapid growth in 2010.

At the same time, the impact of the financial crisis on the export of machine tools still exists, and the situation is not optimistic. The weakening of foreign markets, the low added value of China’s major export products, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi, and the increase in production costs have drastically reduced the profits of export companies. Therefore, accelerating the structural adjustment of export products is still the long-term strategic focus in the future.

In 2010, the domestic machine tool import volume increased by 27.8% compared with the highest level in the same period in 2008, a record high.

This is due to the low base of the previous year, and the monthly growth rate of machine tools, especially metal processing machines, exceeding 100% year-on-year. On the one hand, the domestic machine tool products can not fully meet the needs of the domestic market. On the other hand, with the further opening up of the market, and the state encourages imports and balances the implementation of trade policies, it is expected that the imports of machine tools will remain high for a period of time.

Unusually, the unit price of imported CNC metal processing machines has dropped significantly year-on-year. In 2010, the average import unit price for CNC metal processing machine tools was US$142,000, compared with US$213,000 in 2009 and US$151,000 in 2008.

The association believes that in 2009, the domestic market was mainly driven by national key investment projects, and the demand for high-end CNC machine tools was large, resulting in a significant increase in unit prices compared with previous years. In 2010, the domestic market demand for various levels of products has increased significantly, especially the import of low-priced mid-range machine tools imported from Japan, thus lowering the average unit price of imported machine tools. In addition, the lagging development of the domestic functional component industry has also been traced in the import and export. The number of imports of numerical control devices, machine tool holders, metal forming machine tools, gauges, and gauges all increased significantly faster than the import value.

This reflects the huge market capacity of functional components and gauges in China and the finer and narrower demand levels. However, the development of domestic functional component industries lags behind.

The association believes that the current rapid growth in imports of machine tool products shows that China’s demand for high-end products is huge and its purchasing power is strong. Chinese enterprises should seize this opportunity to work hard on how to replace imported products and learn advanced foreign service concepts, achieve structural adjustment, and change the goal of development methods.

In the second half of the year, there has been a slowdown in growth. In terms of the production of signs, the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry has continued to grow rapidly throughout the year. Except for January and February, which are affected by holiday factors, the monthly industrial output value of other months is stable at more than 40 billion yuan.

Among the large machine tool industry, the industry's gross industrial output value of the three small industries such as gold-cutting machine tools, tools and measuring instruments, and woodworking machinery grew at a lower rate than the industry average, which was 34.3%, 33.9%, and 36.5%, respectively. Among the other five small industries, the highest year-on-year growth rate came from machine tool accessories, which accounted for 52.3%, followed by castings, abrasives, other metal processing machines, and metal forming machine tools. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of the gross industrial output value of the Jinye machine industry in small industries has generally fluctuated at a high level.

Judging from the index of industrial output value, the annual growth rate of the machine tool industry maintained a rapid growth rate. The accumulative growth rate reached 40.6% in the year, and the growth rate in the month of December was 40.1% lower than the cumulative growth rate. The main factor is the sharp increase in the growth rate in December 2009.

In terms of sales, the sales rate of industrial products in the machine tool industry was 98.2%, which was 0.6 percentage point higher than that in the same period of 2009. However, only eight cutting edge tools and abrasives, woodworking machinery and other metal processing machinery were positive. Its large volume and relatively high growth rate led to positive growth in data across the industry. The sales rate of industrial products in the gold-cutting and forming machine tool industries fell by 1.1 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.

According to the statistical data of some of the association’s key contact companies, the monthly sales revenue of the first 11 months showed a year-on-year growth rate in the first six months, followed by a downward channel in the last five months, and the cumulative inventory chain fell slightly, but still The second high in the year was 9.94 billion yuan.

All the above indicators show that the sales growth rate of products may slow down in the coming period of time.

In terms of demand, the statistics of the investment status of the National Bureau of Communications on 13 machine tool user industries show that the total investment in fixed asset completed equipment is positive growth, and the growth rate of 11 industries is more than double digit, and the two industries with the largest investment amount are It is the automobile industry and the electrical and electrical industry, which were 207.3 billion yuan and 203.7 billion yuan respectively. And the planned total investment of these two industries increased by about 30% year-on-year. Automotive and electrician industries will also be the main forces for the consumption of machine tool products.

However, some subtle changes in the market should also attract attention. In the case of general sales revenue growth of Jinqie machine tool manufacturing enterprises, sales revenue of some machine tool enterprises with heavy machine tools as the leading product has experienced low-speed growth or even negative growth. In this regard, industry companies should keep a clear head on the market hot spots that emerged in the previous period, strengthen pre-judgment, and actively respond to market changes.

In terms of structure, in recent years, some industries have experienced low-level redundant construction. The increase in demand for low-end products in the machine tool market is a reflection of this situation. With the rational return of market demand, the structure is gradually reasonable, reaching 52.5% throughout the year, indicating that the machine tool market structure is still moving in a healthy direction.

What is worrying is that the structure of China's machine tools and tools still can not meet the demand of the domestic market for high-end products. Although the import of China's machine tool products has continued to grow rapidly for many years, the import growth rate in 2010 exceeded 60%. Compared with 2009, the proportion of mid-end products imported from machine tools increased in 2010, and the proportion of high-end products decreased. The influx of mid-range products has created tremendous competitive pressure on the development of China's medium and high-end CNC machine tools industry. In addition, the Mainland and Taiwan signed the "Economy Framework Agreement on Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation" (ECFA) came into effect on January 1, 2011, and a batch of products that implement early harvesting began to implement tariff reductions. The original rate was reduced to 5% from 9.7%. 5% or less to 0 tariff. Mid-range CNC lathes and other products will create greater competitive pressure on mainland companies. Machine tool companies should have active countermeasures to make the company continue to develop in the fierce market competition.

With the development of the national economy, the market for machine tools continues to expand. Whether we can accelerate the pace of product structure adjustments and quickly meet user needs is an important factor in determining whether we can increase market share. At present, the adjustment of China's machine tool product structure is a long way to go. It also requires industry insiders to make great efforts and it also needs the state to give appropriate policy support.

From speed to quality, the 2010 Central Economic Work Conference proposed: To accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode as an important goal and strategic measure for deepening the implementation of the scientific concept of development, the essence of which lies in improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, that is, promoting scientific and technological innovation. Optimize structure, improve efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and protect the environment. To this end, the association conducted analysis on some economic efficiency indicators in the first half of 2010, and further analyzed the corresponding indicators at the end of the year. It hopes to guide enterprises to shift more from a focus on scale and speed to a focus on quality and efficiency in order to realize the entire industry. The goal of improving operational quality and efficiency.

In this analysis, 94 enterprises with certain representativeness were selected from the whole industry, including 62 gold-cutting machines, 13 forging machines, 5 machine tool accessories, 6 rolling parts, 3 numerical control devices, and electrical appliances. 2 homes, 3 cutting tools. Although these companies cannot fully reflect the overall outlook of the entire industry, their analysis can have a preliminary understanding of the quality and effectiveness of the industry's economic operation.

In the analysis, four indicators including current assets turnover ratio, input-output ratio, energy consumption per 10,000 yuan output value, and output value margin were selected to determine the status of capital use, the contribution value of total assets, the state of energy consumption, and the output value. Profit situation.

From the table, it can be seen that all indicators of the industry generally have a greater degree of improvement than the same period of last year. In small industries, energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of production value in the gold-cutting machine tool industry increased by 10% year-on-year. In the case of an increase of 28.9% in output value, the energy consumption per million yuan has shown a reverse growth phenomenon. The relevant enterprises should give Pay full attention. The turnover rate of the forging machinery industry has decreased 0.1 times from the same period of last year. The indicators show that the efficiency of capital use has declined.

Based on the analysis of the 2010 data, the association also forecast the growth rate in 2011. According to past data, the increase in the total output value of the machine tool industry is higher than the increase in the national GDP. In 2011, the government increased investment while highlighting the suppression of inflation, implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy. Therefore, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized transforming the mode of development, accelerating structural adjustments, improving the quality and efficiency of investment, strictly controlling investment in overcapacity industries, and preventing new low-level redundant construction. This will enable various industries to pay more attention to the quality of investment instead of pursuing the scale of investment in fixed assets. The rapid growth of the machine tool industry in 2010 has increased its base number and will also affect the growth rate in 2011. Therefore, the association expects that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2011 should exceed 10%. Figure 1 shows the actual growth rate of monthly industrial output in the last three years and the forecast for each month of 2011.

Based on industry-wide forecasts, the association expects that after deducting non-machine-tool production value factors, the sales value of metal processing machine tools will reach 24.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2011; imports will be 9.5 billion U.S. dollars; exports will be 2.3 billion U.S. dollars; consumption will be 31.9 billion U.S. dollars. However, the country is adjusting the existing statistical scope, which may have some impact on the domestic sales value in 2011. The convergence of statistical data with the previous year will also have a certain impact.