The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that the trade surplus in May increased from April, reaching 20.21 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 9.9% compared with the same period of last year.
Previously, most economists had predicted during the survey that China’s trade surplus would reach around US$21.5 billion in May. However, the final figures released by the General Administration of Customs show that the total import and export value in May was US$220.78 billion, an increase of 33.2%. Among them, exports were US$120.49 billion, up 28.1%; imports were US$100.29 billion, up 40%, and the trade surplus was US$20.21 billion.
In April this year, the monthly import scale hit a record high, exceeding US$100 billion for the first time. In the same month, China’s exports were US$118.71 billion, up 21.8%; imports were US$102.03 billion, up 26.3%, and the trade surplus was US$16.68 billion.
Market participants believe that China’s trade situation in May has continued the trend of the previous months, with higher export growth, while high oil prices and commodity prices continue to push up the total amount of imports.
However, Pingfang Securities macro analyst Sun Fanghong pointed out that the export growth rate announced by the General Administration of Customs needs to be studied to determine whether the foreign demand has not weakened, or whether the inflow of hot money has led to an increase in exports.
JP Morgan Chase said in its latest research report yesterday that the Chinese economy has not been affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis. Thanks to the strong EU market, exports have maintained a relatively healthy growth rate.
However, JPMorgan also pointed out that the possibility of hot money is not ruled out in China's trade data. At present, these hot money has drawn the attention of the policy makers and it is expected that the central bank will continue to adhere to tight monetary policy.
JP Morgan expects that after the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio to 17.5% last weekend, the central bank may still continue to use this policy in the second half of this year, raising the reserve requirement ratio to 18%.
It is worth mentioning that, from the data released by the General Administration of Customs, it can be found that the pace of China's primary product imports has accelerated significantly. From January to May this year, China imported 75.97 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 12.7%, the average price of 689.9 US dollars / ton, up 64.1%; imported refined oil 17.34 million tons, an increase of 17.3%, the average price of 709.6 US dollars / ton, up 66.9%.
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